Demographic Change and International Labor Migration

The composition of the world population is entering an unparalleled phase of drastic change, with the birth rate falling as the population ages overall.　Changes are particularly prominent in developed countries, where workers from developing countries are moving in to supplement labor shortages.　Japan is among the countries most affected by the falling birth rate and ageing population, thus the question of whether or not to accept foreign workers is of great significance. Yet, the flow of workers into Japan continues unchecked despite a grave lack of investigation into the issue.　According to forecasts by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, the working population of Japan will fall by about 10,700,000 by 2030 unless action is taken to promote employment.　Some believe that, should this forecast prove accurate, Japan will have little choice but to take on foreign workers.　However, the problems of a falling birth rate and ageing population exist also in developing countries, hence it is far from guaranteed that the flow of labor from these areas will continue.

Migration across the borders of Asian countries is commonplace, and competition is arising in securing human resources.　The countries that provide a large number of workers see migration positively, viewing it as a fundamental human right. Given this active international migration, it is crucial to deepen mutual understanding with countries that supply labor if these countries are to survive and co-exist in global society.

In view of this situation, this project will examine how best to deal with these changes in population composition, and forthcoming results will be compiled into documents for policy formation.　Over the next three years (FY2008-2010), SPF will aim, through this project, to produce proposals for Japanese policy regarding acceptance of foreign labor resources into Japan. In FY2008, project activities will be divided among three subcommittees, dealing with changes in population composition and the labor market, international comparison of migration policy, and multicultural coexistence and social integration, respectively. The subcommittees will research and organize information on Japanese labor policy and multicultural coexistence/social integration policy, and will investigate policies regarding migration adopted by other Asian countries.

Outline of project activities in 2008

◆Subcommittee 1 　　Changes in population composition and the labor market

The effect on the labor market of the drop in population size resulting from the declining birth rate and ageing population will be investigated. Taking into account the increases in productivity that occur through mechanization, greater introduction of women and senior citizens into the labor market, outsourcing overseas and other such approaches, the labor force – and thus the necessity, if any, of recruiting migrant workers from overseas – will be investigated on a region-by-region and industry-by-industry basis.　In FY2008, the aim of the project will be to compile the arguments surrounding migrant workers in Japan, and prepare fundamental data that facilitate objective discussion of the population composition and changes in the labor force in Japan. The industries considered will principally be manufacturing, primary industry (agriculture, fishing), IT, nursing/caring.


◆Subcommittee 2 　　International comparison of migration policy

Developed countries are now attempting to bring in migrant workers to prevent the stagnation of economic activities that results from depletion of the labor force and to maintain international competitiveness.　Policy for the social integration of long-term residents is also being hammered out, and in Asian countries immigration policy now revolves around the two core policies of immigration control and social integration.
Countries supplying migrant workers are now adopting enthusiastic labor sending strategies to make their workers more attractive through human resource training and other methods, thus making the migration of the labor force highly dynamic on a global scale. Yet, developing countries also face a rapidly decreasing birth rate and ageing population, thus the future of labor migration [[from these countries]] is by no means guaranteed.

In FY2008, labor distributing countries – the Philippines, Indonesia, China　– and recipient countries – Korea, Taiwan – will be studied. Studies of labor sending countries will focus not only on policy outlines, but will touch upon the future of distribution from the distributing country in light of changes in population composition. Furthermore, consideration will be given to how the workers regard employment overseas. Turning the spotlight on these areas should help deepen understanding of the countries distributing labor. Studies of countries receiving labor resources will not only focus on immigration policy, but will also deal with social integration policy. Detailed reference will be made to nursing and caring, two fields that have drawn particular attention in recent years. The international comparisons conducted will not stop at a simple comparison of systems used in various countries, but will also look at discrepancies between the system and the actual state of affairs in the country, as well as problem areas.


◆Subcommittee 3 　 Multicultural Coexistence / Social Integration

Studies of migration policy tend to focus on the management side of immigration, however this subcommittee will largely investigate and compile information on present status and issues regarding what happens after a country has accepted migrant workers/immigrants, looking at services provided to these individuals by local governments and NPOs as part of their “social integration policy”　or “Multicultural coexistence conductance policy”. To obtain this information, the subcommittee will examine eight locations around Japan. These studies should illuminate the needs of foreign residents as well as the services that are provided by government, NGOs and NPOs. However, as these factors will vary depending on the attributes of long-term residents, their employment status and local policy, it will be possible to make several representative models, namely, 1) a central city model, 2) a suburban model, 3) a densely populated region model, and 4) a mid-mountain region model.　Through fact-finding surveys in the abovementioned areas, the subcommittee will aim to build a regional management model.


Initiatives planned for 2009 onwards

In the second year of the project and in subsequent years, investigation and research will be carried out on more specific themes.　Subcommittee 1 will carry out detailed analysis of agriculture and other industry sectors that have not been sufficiently clarified to date.　At the same time, quantitative analysis will be carried out for use in simulations to examine the effects on Japanese society of introducing migrant workers.　By so doing, both quantitative and qualitative approaches will be used to research the impact of migrant workers.　Subcommittee 2 will continue investigation of country-by-country differences in managed migration policy, paying particular attention to regions that transcend national boundaries.　The demarcation of the EU is a new factor that defines migration in Europe; however, in Asia, ASEAN is rapidly becoming integrated and therefore provides an excellent model for examining what effects integration of a given region has on migration within that region. . Subcommittee 2 will investigate the effects of regional integration on international migration. Subcommittee 3 will examine several case studies of regions in Germany to investigate whether the multicultural coexistence model created in project year 1 can be applied to other countries.　These case studies will allow a country-by-country comparison of the role of local governments and the private sector.

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